On a cruise ship, you don’t ever want to hear those words.
12/4/22
By now you’ve heard the story about the cruise ship passenger who fell overboard and was rescued from the ocean 20 hours later during Thanksgiving week. It’s being referred to as a Thanksgiving miracle (only 25 percent of people who fall overboard survive the experience), and it’s hard to think of it in any other terms once you hear the details. But what happened to that young man shouldn’t deter anyone from cruising. (In fact, even he says he’d like to cruise again.)
The cruise ship industry estimates that between 20 and 30 people fall off cruise ships every year. (Most of this reporting is based on pre-2020 data due to the impact that COVID had on cruise numbers.) This makes your chance of falling overboard on a cruise around 1 in 1.4 million.
| Year | Man Overboard Cruise Ship Incidents | Cruise Passengers Per Year |
| 2019 | 26 | 29,000,000 |
| 2018 | 25 | 28,500,000 |
| 2017 | 17 | 25,800,000 |
| 2016 | 16 | 24,700,000 |
| 2015 | 27 | 22,100,000 |
Now let’s look at the specifics of the case. The young man who fell off the Carnival Valor was cruising with 18 members of his family for Thanksgiving. He said he was at a bar with his sister, didn’t get intoxicated, went to use the bathroom, and woke up in the ocean. So, what happened to him after he left the bar unintoxicated? Did he make a pitstop at another bar and get intoxicated?
One thing is absolutely clear. The majority of people who fall off cruise ships either do so intentionally or by committing a reckless act. Railings are built to chest height on every part of the ship, and there have been no incidents of passengers falling off cruise ships due to the negligence of the cruise lines. If someone had accidentally walked into a railing and fallen overboard, it would be worldwide news as the first incident of its kind, and no one is alleging that happened here. So, what happened?
Here are my top 10 theories for how he might’ve ended up in the ocean:
Theory #10: He mistook the ocean for a toilet.
Theory #9: He fell overboard trying to recreate the last moments of the Titanic.
Theory #8: He leaned too far over the railing trying to see what a passing cruise ship’s on-deck movie was.
Theory #7: A mermaid lured him overboard by showing him her, um, irresistible smile.
Theory #6: He was actually drunk as a skunk and mistook the railing for a track and field hurdle.
Theory #5: He was responding to the latest TikTok challenge, surfing without a board.
Theory #4: He ran into his bookie after losing a big bet on the FIFA World Cup.
Theory #3: He sampled the ship’s Thanksgiving turkey and fell overboard while barfing it up.
Theory #2: Someone threw him a football and said, “Go long.”
Theory #1: He fell asleep in the bathroom and sleepwalked over the side while feeling for the hand towels.
But, however he ended up in the water, rest assured that the cruise ship industry takes these incidents seriously and follows strict protocols to rescue any person who’s gone overboard, including marking the location of the fall (if they are aware of it), returning to the site to search for the individual, contacting other ships in the area for assistance, and alerting authorities to begin search-and-rescue operations.
I don’t believe we’ll ever know what caused that young man to end up in the water, and he’s not offering any explanation. But I think we can count on someone making a movie about it.
#thetruthisouttheresomewhere
